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global atmosphere
Annual Mean Temperature: 1914-2007
Annual mean temperature - difference from 1961-1990 average1 (degrees Celsius)
| 1910s 2 | 1920s | 1930s | 1940s | 1950s |
|---|
Difference from 1961-1990 baseline | -0.32 | -0.07 | 0.26 | 0.24 | 0.01 |
|---|
| 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s 2 |
|---|
Difference from 1961-1990 baseline | -0.18 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.41 | 0.94 |
|---|
The balance between incoming solar energy and outgoing infrared radiation determines the earth's temperature. Changes in the amount of energy retained within the atmosphere affects global climate, which naturally exhibits long-term fluctuations. Current climate trends are unlikely to be entirely natural in origin however, and there is now evidence that human activities are having a discernible impact on the global climate. 3
Whilst the global impacts of climate change are considerable, there are also wide-ranging implications for Scotland. Flood risk, water resources, agriculture, tourism and health may be affected, all of economic, social and environmental importance.
Over the period 1901-2000, the change in mean global surface temperature explained by a linear trend is 0.57 degrees Celsius (°C). 4 Similarly, a linear trend through the Scottish temperature series for the period 1914-2007 indicates an average annual increase of 0.007°C, or 0.7°C each 100 years. Annual temperature for each of the last five years is higher than for any other year during this period.
By 2100, temperatures in Scotland are predicted to rise by 3.5°C during the summer months and around 2.5°C during the winter months. 5
Source: Met Office
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