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CHAPTER 5 - UNDERSTANDING OUR SEAS: SCIENCE AND DATA
INTRODUCTION
166. Scientific insight and the available data determine our understanding of the many natural processes in the coastal and marine area. Key for management is to discern how these natural processes change in response to human activity in the seas and to differentiate this from natural change. Science is central to our efforts to provide greater stewardship of the seas. The understanding it provides is key in setting objectives and developing the necessary indicators to measure progress in delivering sustainable use of the seas.
167. While we can never be sure that "good" science will result in sustainable use of the seas, it is certainly the case that "poor" science - and the attendant media scrutiny - will not lead to good decision making. This suggests a broader agenda around educating both the policy makers and the wider stakeholder group about what science does and does not do, the conclusions and inferences that can be drawn and the confidence that can be placed in them.
168. The Scottish Marine Bill process and the development of Marine Scotland offer an opportunity to create the appropriate frameworks and linkages to deliver better understanding of the seas. Where relevant a key aim of legislation will be to create the right conditions and framework to foster the development of scientific capacity and expand scientific understanding of the seas.
169. The broad message from Scotland's Seas: Towards Understanding their State2 is that the seas are generally clean and safe, there is evidence of good health and biodiversity and they are certainly productive (Box 1.2). Nonetheless, the seas are dynamic and it is by no means certain that they will remain in the current state even if current activities do not expand. Moreover, it is generally acknowledged that climate change and increasing pressure on the resource represent a serious challenge. It is also clear that the implementation of sustainable development in the marine area will provide a series of challenges from a data and science perspective.
HOW DO WE IMPROVE ON THE EXISTING SCIENCE
170. Scotland's Seas represents an initial review of what we know or what we can agree are the limits of our current scientific knowledge. However it is very much a source document, it was never intended to answer difficult policy questions, for example, "how much activity can the seas support before we begin to significantly impact on marine ecosystems?" The outcome of scientific research often appears ambiguous and difficult to draw conclusions from, perhaps this is simply its nature. However, in the context of decision-making for multi million pound investments there is a need for some certainty. Part of the absence of certainty is undoubtedly due to the lack of scientific literacy on the part of the decision-maker, some of it is due to the way "science" has to be written and some of it is philosophical. While complete certainty is not achievable there is a need to bridge the gap between informed and uninformed decision-making in a more uniform and productive way. There seems a need for both more science, perhaps more focused science, and a mechanism to agree what science is actually telling us. There is a requirement for some central authority that could offer answers and guidance on marine science.
171. Scotland's Seas identifies a need for greater stakeholder involvement in determining research priorities as a key gap in the current research processes. This includes stakeholders both within the scientific community and those outside with an interest. Some initiatives, for example Marine Science Scotland, are underway that will provide a framework for greater co-ordination within the academic community but there is also the gap between that community and the wider stakeholders and policy makers to bridge. In addition there will be a need to make data and science available to the regional level of Marine Scotland.
172. The need for more focused research effort and stakeholder input suggest the need to develop a marine science strategy. A marine science strategy could provide a mechanism for directing scientific effort into areas of importance and focusing research effort as well as offering a channel for all stakeholders to make an input into the scale and direction of marine science in Scotland. A further purpose of the science strategy would be to co-ordinate science and industry involvement with a view to providing more coherent data capture and storage. There are a range of possible bodies that might have responsibility for the marine science strategy, clearly Marine Scotland is one but there are other options.
173. The Scottish Government's overarching existing Science Strategy 17 is currently being refreshed to link Scottish Ministers' economic strategy with the development of the wider Scottish science base. In addition, ahead of revising the existing Agriculture, Environment and Biological Sciences research strategy (2005-2010) 18 for the period 2011-2016, Scottish Ministers have decided to develop a specific "Strategic Framework for science in support of Rural, Environment, Marine and related policies" which will be subject to an open consultation later this year. This will focus on how the wide variety of scientific activities funded by the Scottish Government in these areas will support development of policy and bring added value to the crosscutting approach adopted by the Scottish Government. After this, a range of more detailed policy specific science/research strategies may be developed to support the Strategic Framework. A marine science strategy could fit within this framework.
SOCIO - ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS
174. It is clear that the research agenda goes well beyond science. Scotland's Seas indicates that core marine industries (excluding oil and gas) are worth around £2.2bn to the Scottish economy (including oil and gas this figure is around £20bn). Total employment, again excluding oil and gas, is about 50,000 jobs (See Figure 1.1). While these broad headline and industry figures are useful they are at a very aggregate level and do not provide much information on the geographical concentration of specific activities, or the potential impact of a reduction in activity on a specific area. Some data about the location of economic activity are available to Government but care is needed in their interpretation. In addition, identifying all the inter-connections between various activities can be difficult making a comprehensive socio-economic picture of a particular activity or geographical area difficult to establish. There is a sizeable research agenda here in terms of developing our understanding of the likely impact of a change of economic activity in a small area and the consequent social effects.
Q44 Do you agree that Scottish Ministers should develop a marine science strategy to focus marine scientific effort, integrate socio-economic considerations, and to create a framework for wider stakeholder input?
Q45 Do you have views on how to integrate scientific evidence with stakeholder and local knowledge?
175. The Sustainable Seas Task Force considered the question of what additional research was required. The SSTF agreed that there appeared to be two essential pieces of work. First, a desk based exercise to collate all the existing sources of information and data on the marine area, and second, a need to map the full extent of the seabed around Scotland including the deeper waters.
176. Scottish Ministers are considering a national seabed survey. Scotland's Seas identified further gaps around monitoring, indicators and reporting areas. We would be interested in respondents' views about potential priorities for further work.
Q46 What do you think are the potential priorities for further work?
MONITORING
177. A range of bodies currently undertake some monitoring activity and Scotland's Seas identifies current Scottish monitoring activity. It is largely focused on existing European and international obligations including water chemistry, hazardous substances, monitoring of designated sites and species counts etc. While this monitoring remains important it does not provide the consistent series of information required to assess GES, other high level objectives or provide an overall integrated assessment on the state of the ecosystem. There is a clear need for improvement in the range, depth and consistency of the information collected. In addition the requirements of the MSFD (see chapter 2) may increase the area for which we have to collect data. Water bodies do not recognise administrative boundaries and the health and cleanliness of a body of water can depend significantly on the state of the adjacent body of water. Scotland's Seas identifies the area to the west of Scotland, which is simply assumed to be clean, as an area where monitoring will be required. In short we need more information on Scotland's deeper offshore waters.
178. Indicators of the state of the seas are being developed in the context of the UK Marine Monitoring Assessment Strategy ( UKMMAS). Three evidence collection groups, Clean and Safe Seas, Healthy and Biologically Diverse Seas, and Productive Seas, which include Scottish scientists, have started work to develop these indicators. Their work will form the scientific evidence base for three UK feeder reports for marine reporting in 2010. Evidence from these feeder reports will be gathered into two overall integrated assessment reports for publication in 2010 - the State of Scotland's Seas 2010 and Charting Progress 2 which together will form the basis of the UK's initial assessment that will be required under the MSFD for 2012.
179. Scotland's seas are different from the rest of the UK's seas. Scotland's seas tends to be oceanic, deep, less intensively used and less degraded than the seas in the rest of the UK. While there are economies of scale from involvement in the UK processes and there are clear advantages from a joined up process given our European obligations, it is also possible that Scottish Ministers will want to identify indicators only relevant to Scotland.
180. There is a wide agenda around monitoring and the creation of performance indicators, though it is unclear whether legislation would in itself ensure the delivery of this agenda. If we are to monitor and assess Scotland's seas consistently and to rigorous standards then responsibility for these activities must lie with a single body, and the obvious choice would be Marine Scotland. Scottish Ministers intend that Marine Scotland carry out this duty with the assistance of some form of advisory body.
Q47 Scottish Ministers propose that the strategic role for the monitoring and assessment of Scotland's seas lies with Marine Scotland, do you agree?
181. Monitoring is an important aspect of delivering sustainable development in Scotland's seas but it tends to treat different impacts in isolation. There is a need to integrate assessment of these various impacts into a single aggregate assessment of human impact on the coasts and seas. Similarly there is a requirement to improve our understanding of climate change and the likely impacts that climate change will have on the seas around Scotland.
DATA AND INFORMATION FLOW
182. Associated with monitoring there are a range of issues about data capture and storage essentially centred on good data archiving and access, interoperability of data between systems, the use of data in mapping, and availability of metadata. Data issues were identified as part of Charting Progress in 2005 and resulted in the Marine Data and Information Partnership ( MDIP) being established, supported by Scottish and UK Governments.
183. Following its initial phase, the Marine Environmental Data and Information Network ( MEDIN - a merger of MDIP and MEDAG) has identified a work programme for the period 2008 to 2013 to deliver a fully operational co-ordinated framework for managing marine data and information by 2013. The Scottish Government has recently agreed to provide £150,000 per year for this work on behalf of Scottish public sector organisations. Consistency in data collected throughout the UK will be important as Scotland takes forward management of its seas and implements new European obligations.
184. Data and information on the seas are collected by a range of other bodies most notably fishermen and oil and gas. Some of these data are survey work, some are the reporting of observations whilst others are "monitoring" of the seas around a specific activity. Some information is of very high value to the industry collecting it but also could be of high value when contributed to a wider assessment process of the seas. Scotland's Seas has identified working with wider stakeholders and industry as a gap in the assessment process and is seeking assistance for the State of Scotland's Seas in 2010.
185. It is unclear what legislation can contribute to take forward the data gathering and information flow agenda. The SSTF did not consider there was a compelling case for any legislation in this area. The SSTF thought that secondary legislation e.g. setting data collection and storage standards might possibly be useful but could not be considered essential. It is proposed that the Marine Bill allows for the development of secondary legislation as deemed necessary.
GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM
186. The control and organisation of data flows will be a key aspect of delivering sustainable development in Scotland's seas. The need for control and organisation of data and data flows suggests that some form of geographic information system ( GIS) is unavoidable. Given Marine Scotland roles in planning, licensing and conservation it would seem essential that Marine Scotland take forward the development of a Scotland wide marine GIS.
Q48 Scottish Ministers propose to instruct Marine Scotland to take forward the development of GIS as a matter of priority. Do you agree?
OBJECTIVES
187. Objectives will determine both our use and the limits on our use of the seas, all within the context of delivering sustainability. Scotland's Seas is the first step in assessing what the Marine Strategy Framework Directive objectives mean, and whether they are being met, and further assessments will be required over time. However, it is not clear yet whether scientific foundations and data availability are in place to allow us to create high level objectives to drive the sustainable use of Scotland's seas. This problem is magnified when we are considering setting objectives at the lower levels of the marine planning system. The UKMMAS process has already identified a need for both high level and contributory objectives (see chapter 2). For a variety of reasons, a separate suite of objectives may be more appropriate for Scotland.
188. It is clear that the science and data strategy could have a significant role to play in developing objectives. Scottish Ministers intend to ask Marine Scotland to ensure the science and data strategy is developed so as to make an input into the objective setting function.
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