The Scottish Government

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04 INTRODUCTION

4.1 This chapter provides an introduction to climate change and the resulting impacts. It also provides an explanation of the process of climate adaptation and what would be required to achieve a well-adapting Scotland.

4.2 Climate change is one of the most serious threats facing Scotland and the world today. It has the potential to impact significantly upon everyone living and working in Scotland - and we must act to safeguard our communities and the long-term prosperity of our environment and our economy.

4.3 There is now broad consensus that man-made climate change is happening. The seriousness with which the international community takes this threat was displayed at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference in Bali, in December 2007. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon stressed to the more than 180 countries in attendance that 'the time for equivocation is over. The science is clear. Climate change is happening. The impact is real. The time to act is now. ¹

4.4 There is overwhelming scientific evidence that the global climate is changing and that the primary cause for this change is the release of greenhouse gases at a greater rate from human activity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC), the foremost authority on the science of climate change, stated in 2007 "[m]ost of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20 ^th century is very likely [greater than 90% likelihood] due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations ²."

4.5 To date, public attention and debate has largely focused on the significant challenge of reducing emissions to our atmosphere as a means to mitigate future climate change. Scotland is providing global leadership in this effort by developing a Scottish Climate Change Bill that will oblige Scotland to reduce its emissions by 80% by 2050 (see Box 6.1). However, it is not only the future that is threatened by climate change. Scotland is already experiencing the impacts of a changing climate and some degree of change remains unavoidable over the next 30 to 40 years.

The Stern Review suggested that even with no further emissions, the global temperature will continue to warm by 0.5 to 1 ^o Celsius over the coming decades ³. Therefore, even with highly successful global emissions reduction, some adaptation is still necessary. The IPCC's Fourth Assessment report concludes that "[a]daptation is essential to reduce the effects of climate change and is the only means to respond to the impacts from historic emissions." ⁴ However, analysis by the Tyndall Centre indicates that even with the most ambitious targets for emissions reduction, an increase of 3-4 ^o Celsius above pre-industrial levels is more accurate. Adaptation is not an alternative to reducing emissions. A portfolio of climate adaptation and mitigation measures must be implemented.

4.6 Records show that since 1961, temperatures have risen in every season and in all parts of Scotland. Heavy rainfall events have increased significantly in winter, particularly in northern and western regions where winter rainfall has increased by almost 60 per cent ⁵. Future climate scenarios suggest this trend is likely to continue. Over the coming decades Scotland is likely to see changes in seasonal rainfall patterns, with wetter winters and autumns, and warmer temperatures throughout the year ⁶. For further information on climate trends and predictions for Scotland, see Annex A.

4.7 In Scotland, as across the UK, extreme weather events have led to landslides and flooding. Currently, an estimated 100,000 properties are considered to be in areas of flood risk in Scotland. Flooding of residential properties often results in families having to cope with losing their possessions and having to leave their homes for long periods. More intense rainfall will also stretch the capacity of drainage systems to cope as well as affecting unique heritage assets, particularly archaeological sites in coastal areas already threatened by ongoing coastal erosion.

4.8 Climate change poses a serious challenge for our plant and wild life, changing the natural environment at a faster rate than some species can adapt. As average temperatures rise, some of our native species in Scotland will find that the environment on which they depend on shrinking or disappearing and new species may begin to move into Scotland as the climate suits them better. If continuing climate change leads to significant losses of species or habitats, it may lead to the loss of biodiversity which could otherwise help to regulate the climate.

4.9 The impacts of climate change are already being felt across the globe, and it is likely that developing countries, least able to adapt to these changes, will be most adversely affected. The Scottish Government recognises the need for international action to address the impact of climate change in vulnerable developing countries. Scotland must also address the indirect impacts on Scotland as a result of changes that will take place beyond its borders. In an increasingly globalised world, these changes will affect patterns of migration and tourism; prices for food and industrial commodities; and the spread of vector-borne diseases.

Climate adaptation

4.10 What do we mean by climate adaptation? The term 'adapt' means to alter or adjust; to make fit or suitable. The IPCC defines adaptation as 'adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities ⁷.' In recent years 'climate adaptation' has been used as shorthand for a range of activities (management, technological, institutional) designed to encourage society to cope with changing weather patterns. In the absence of any central planning our society will try and adapt itself to changing weather patterns, as it will to other changes in social and economic conditions. However, without effective preparation and planning, social and economic costs are likely to be much higher than would otherwise be the case, particularly for society's most vulnerable individuals. Similarly without early and coordinated intervention, the impacts on our environment and biodiversity will be greater and the environments ability to continue to provide vital services will be put at risk. Climate adaptation is the process by which we may achieve a well-adapting Scotland.

A well-adapting Scotland

4.11 A well-adapting Scotland is one where individuals and organisations factor climate change probabilities into planning and implementation decisions on investment, infrastructure and civil contingency at an early stage in the development process. It is one where the tools and information exist to help individuals and organisations manage uncertainty; cost the relative benefits of action versus inaction; and co-ordinate and facilitate the flow of information between decision makers. It is one where agreed levels of risk-management are applied across Scotland, based on up-to-date information of current and future risks of changing weather patterns. It is one where there is co-ordination across key decision makers, such as local and central government and ongoing monitoring of impacts and climate adaptation effectiveness.

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