The Scottish Government

« Previous | Contents | Next »

Listen

2002-3 Statistical Plan

Chapter 2

2 Theme Plans

2.1 The Economy (Minister for Enterprise, Transport and Lifelong Learning, Minister for Finance and Public Services)

The Scottish Executive produces a range of annual and quarterly macro-economic indicators to monitor the performance of the Scottish economy. Macro-economics policy is a reserved matter, but the Government's emphasis on evidence based policy making requires increasingly detailed information on regional economic activity. Most of the indicators use information collected by the Office for National Statistics through UK-wide inquires, and will benefit from UK-wide activity in the theme. However, the Executive's statisticians refine the quality and coverage of the data with Scottish-specific 'top-up' and trade inquiries.

Outputs

Summary of main outputs

• Gross Domestic Product (including Index of Production)
• Scottish Manufactured Exports
• Index of Construction
• Regional Accounts
• Input-Output Tables
• Scottish Local Government Financial Statistics including Revenue, Capital, Council Tax and Non-domestic rates.

New Outputs

• Possible index of output of Knowledge Industries
• Possible publication of GDP estimates further disaggregated by sector
• Possible Scottish quarterly non-manufactured exports
• Environmental Accounts for Scotland are being considered
• A one-off research project will be conducted in 2002 to disaggregate household consumption and income within the Input-Output tables

Development of sources

• Gross Domestic Product (including Index of Production). Ongoing data monitoring will continue with particular focus on the public sector.
• Scottish Manufactured Exports. The timetable for quarterly publications will be brought forward by another week in the first half of the year.
• Index of Construction The review of the Index of Construction and the Scottish Construction Tables will continue in 2002. Increased resources will be invested in this exercise.
• Input-Output Tables. As part of the ongoing development of the tables, reviews of the methodology and data sources will take place for agriculture, forestry, fishing and exports. Improved data and methods will also be used in the analysis of distribution margins, inventories and gross fixed capital formation. In addition, a survey of service sector trade flows will be conducted in 2002.
• The feasibility of producing a measure of Scottish Gross National Income will be considered.

User/provider consultation

The Scottish Economic Statistics Consultants Group (SESCG) has been established for 2 years now and their view on issues such as Scottish exports, Input-Output issues, Environmental Accounts and the Scottish Economic Statistics Plan have been sought. This group has assumed the role of the SCOTSTAT Committee for the Economy theme.

Quality improvements

Each economic series produced is considered on an annual basis for improvements to the timeliness of production, data sources and the statistical systems used to produce them.

• Gross Domestic Product (including Index of Production) - Work on preparing for the introduction of chainlinking will continue throughout 2002. Scottish Executive statisticians will work to increase liaison with ONS counterparts.
• Scottish Manufactured Exports - Comparisons with other sources of Scottish exports data will be carried out.
• Index of Construction - The review of the Index of Construction and the Scottish Construction Tables will continue in 2002. Increased resources will be invested in this exercise.
• Regional Accounts - Throughout the year Scottish Executive statisticians will liase closely with ONS counterparts on matters relating to Regional Accounts methodologies.
• Input-Output Tables - The technology assumptions used to derive the symmetric tables will be reassessed as part of a joint review with ONS. Work will continue to provide reliable and timely estimates of Gross Valued Added (GVA) from the I-O tables to meet the demands of the GDP chainlinking project.

Developments in geographic data

• Gross Domestic Product (including Index of Production) - Exploratory investigation of sub-national GDP indices will commence in 2002.

Local Government Finance

The Scottish Executive collects information on local authority revenue and capital accounts, council tax and non-domestic rate bases. National summaries of local authority income and expenditure are published annually in Scottish Local Government Financial Statistics.

Outputs

Summary of main outputs

• Revenue
• Capital
• Council Tax
• Non-domestic rates

Development of sources

The Revenue Returns (LFRs and POBEs) are undergoing a major review in 2001-02. It is planned that councils will have the option to complete these returns electronically in 2002-03. The review of revenue returns is designed to ensure that the information collected is consistent with the accounting classification framework used by councils and meets the needs of users.

User/provider consultation

A new SCOTSTAT Working Group on Local Government Financial Statistics was set up in 2001-02 and held its first meeting in September 2001. There are two meetings planned for 2002-03. The aim of the group is to identify the key statistical information required by all interested parties and to develop a strategy for meeting these needs, while minimising the burden on data suppliers and ensuring that the quality and consistency of the information is fit for purpose.

Quality Improvements

The current Revenue Review aims to improve the consistency and quality of information collected in 2002-03 by, wherever possible, ensuring that the returns are consistent with the revised Local Authority Service Expenditure Analysis contained in the Best Value Accounting Code of Practice 2001 produced by CIPFA (BVACOP).

2.2 Business, Industry and Commerce (Minister for Enterprise, Transport and Lifelong Learning)

The Scottish Executive builds upon the Business, Industry and Commerce theme publications and survey results from the Office for National Statistics and other UK Government Departments. Scottish Executive statisticians carry out a significant amount of work providing information at a more detailed level of sectoral and geographic disaggregation.

Outputs

Summary of main outputs

• The Production, Services and Construction Sectors Databases
• Corporate Sector - analysis of structure and trends in Scotland
• Innovation and the Knowledge Economy.
• Tourism statistics - activity and economic impact

New outputs

• Innovation and the Knowledge Economy. Publication of the Knowledge Based Industries Index as part of the GDP publication will be considered further in 2002

Development of sources

• The Production, Services and Construction Databases - It is planned to continue to bring the timetable for production of the SPD, SSD and SCD forward, to meet the needs of the chain-linking timetable. Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) data for 2000 are due to be received from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in April 2002. If this delivery date is realised, the SPD, SSD and SCD should be ready by late summer 2002 for publication in Autumn 2002.
• Innovation and the Knowledge Economy - Work on drawing together and developing useful information on innovation and the knowledge economy will continue. Liaison with ONS and other key organisations is likely be stepped up over coming months.
• Tourism - A Tourism working group will be established to consider developing the range of information available on Tourism within the Scottish Executive.

User/provider consultation

Consultation with users and providers takes place through the SCOTSTAT Committee on the Economy, referred to earlier.

Quality improvements

• The Production, Services and Construction Sectors - A pilot survey of large firms in Scotland was conducted in 2001. The aims of the study were to find out;

Following analysis of the results in early 2002, it is planned that any follow-up to the pilot survey will be carried out in 2002. During 2002, it is planned to try to improve the use made of the SPD, SSD and SCD databases, particularly in policy making. This may involve identifying potential new users, discussions with current users, and developing new analyses and ways of presenting the data.

• Corporate Sector - Scottish Executive statisticians will liase with ONS colleagues on data quality.

Developments in geographic data

• The Production, Services and Construction Databases - Work is underway to further develop sub-National estimates of the key variables including GVA, employment, Capital expenditure, and Purchases as part of the Neighbourhood Statistics initiative.

2.3 Labour Market (Minister for Enterprise, Transport and Lifelong Learning, Minister for Finance and Public Services)

The Scottish Executive builds upon the labour market theme publications from the Office for National Statistics. Scottish Executive statisticians carry out significant work in providing information at a more detailed level of disaggregation within Scotland to support policy decisions of the Executive.

Outputs

Summary of main outputs

• New Deal Statistics
• Local Area Profiles
• Skills Statistics.
• Labour Market Forecasts

New outputs

• Longitudinal Analysis of Labour Force Survey - Standard analysis developed and results will be published in Scottish Economic Statistics.
• Skills Statistics - Assess the feasibility and value of a skills survey.

Quality improvements

• Links between the Labour Forces Survey (LFS) and other Survey data - Report findings on possible options for combining the results of LFS and Scottish Household Survey and assess the feasibility of using this joint data set. Also investigate the possibility of linking the Inter Departmental Business Register with LFS or other labour market information.
• Labour Force Survey Boost - Investigate the relative costs and benefits of boosting the Labour Force Survey for Scotland. Assess how the local labour force surveys are progressing for England and Wales and establish the most appropriate methodology for Scotland.
• Small Area Estimates - Improve local area labour market information by modelling benefits data from the Department of Work and Pensions and local population estimates to obtain better local area estimates for economically active and economically inactive people.
• Longitudinal Analysis - The labour force survey tracks people over five quarters and it is therefore possible to track people's labour market situation. A standard analysis will be developed and results will be published in Scottish Economic Statistics.
• Skills - Assess the feasibility and value for money of a skills survey, similar to those already undertaken in England and Wales, to address the gaps in information on skills that have already been identified.
• Labour Market Forecasts - Investigate the range of labour market forecasts that are produced for Scotland and areas within Scotland and, liaising with Future Skills Scotland, establish the potential for using the results to help inform us about future issues.
• New Deal Statistics - Continue to produce monthly news releases on New Deal statistics and publish quarterly New Deal Intelligence Reports that focus on the performance of New Deal programme and cover specific topics as agreed with Employment and Welfare to Work Division.
• The Executive statisticians will contribute to the Office for National Statistics quality review of the Annual Business Inquiry and work to establish the Local Labour Market Strategy

User/provider consultation

The statistics plan will be informed by the SCOTSTAT Economic Committee.

Developments in geographic data

• Small Area Estimates - Improve local area labour market information by modelling benefits data from the Department of Work and Pensions and local population estimates to obtain better local area estimates for economically active and economically inactive people.
• Ward Level Unemployment Rates - These are based on claimant counts.

2.4 Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (Minister for Environment and Rural Development)

Agriculture and fishing

The Scottish Executive provides advice on and analysis of Scottish agriculture and fishing activity through a series of regular censuses and surveys, the results of which are published on an annual basis. Most outputs are driven by European Union requirements.

Outputs

Summary of main outputs

• Farm Accounts Survey
• Poultry Survey
• Sea Fishing Statistics.

New outputs

• Survey on Potato Production - An investigation is being carried out into the feasibility of instituting a new survey on potato production and disposal.

User/provider consultation

This area is currently covered by the Scottish Economic Statistics Consultants Group, which forms the relevant Committee in the new SCOTSTAT structure. Consideration will be given to the formation of a working group to cover Agriculture issues during 2002-03.

Quality improvements

• Survey of Tenanted Land - This survey is to be revamped.
• Scottish Farm Accounts Survey - Hull University carried out a statistical examination of this survey and their recommendations are now being considered.
• Agricultural Accounts - Two research reports have been commissioned "Finance for Farming" and "Farm & Enterprise Performance"; these findings are being utilised to improve the Accounts and Farm Incomes in Scotland.
• Sea fishing E-logbooks/e-salesnotes -Jointly with other fisheries departments of the UK, a project is under way to produce a working model for maintaining and transmitting at sea (via satellite) fishing logbook data. The objective is to capture this information (an EU requirement) quickly and enter it automatically into fisheries' databases. Full implementation depends on new EU regulations which may be forthcoming after next year's review of the Common Fisheries Policy. Similarly, consideration is being given to how fish sales information can be captured automatically. Both these projects form part of the incipient fisheries information strategy.

Developments in geographic data

• Sea Fishing Statistics - Work is underway on improving the data collection on fisheries dependency at local level. This involves exploring with others the scope for collecting existing information differently, and for gathering new information. The objective is to obtain detailed statistics to meet part of the fisheries management strategy. There is less than full coverage of data on the economics of the fishing fleet, and work is under way to try to improve existing systems, particularly for the small, inshore sector.

Forestry

The Forestry Commission collects and publishes forestry statistics. The main annual statistical publications are British Timber Statistics, Forestry Commission Facts & Figures and Forestry Statistics; all were brought into the scope of National Statistics from August 2001.

Development of sources

• administrative records for grant schemes and for woodland managed by the Forestry Commission
• statistical surveys of wood processing industries
• information about all woodland collected every 10-15 years through a National Inventory, for which the latest Scottish results are being published in the first half of 2002 (not National Statistics).

Outputs

Summary of main outputs

• A new publication, provisionally titled "Scotland's Trees, Woods and Forests" will be published in spring 2002, containing descriptive information and statistics (not NS).
• Draft indicators for the Scottish Forestry Strategy will be issued for consultation in early 2002 (not NS).
• Draft UK Indicators for Sustainable Forestry, which include statistics for Scotland, are being issued for consultation in February 2002, aiming for publication in the summer of 2002 (not NS).

Quality improvements

• Most forestry statistics that were brought into the scope of National Statistics in 2001 will be subject to a National Statistics quality review during 2002.

2.5 Population and Migration (Minister for Justice)

Population statistics are used extensively by a wide range of users in determining resource allocation for local and health authorities; in planning for housing, education, health care and social welfare needs and in the derivation of per capita indicators, which assist comparisons across areas. They are therefore a key input to work on cross cutting issues, such as social inclusion. Vital statistics (derived from the registration of births, marriages and deaths) and migration statistics provide information on the dynamics of population change and on the experiences of people born at different times and in different subgroups of the population.

The principal challenges in Scotland within this theme are to ensure that those producing policies and providing services are aware of the ageing population and to ensure that local information is available to meet the needs of service providers. Traditionally population data has been available at council area level but in common with other themes the demand for more local information has grown. This has particular importance for the neighbourhood statistics programme since population provides an important denominator allowing other measures to be compared between different local areas.

Responsibility for most statistics in this theme is devolved and managed by the General Register Office for Scotland, but immigration and citizenship statistics are reserved and managed by the Home Office.

Outputs

The key publication is the Annual Report of the Registrar General for Scotland, which will be published in September 2002. This, and all other GROS publications can be accessed on the GRO website at www.gro-scotland.gov.uk . Plans to improve the presentation of this report have recently been announced.

Summary of main outputs

• Population estimates and projections
• International and internal migration
• Vital Statistics such as births, deaths, marriages and divorces
• Immigration and citizenship

New outputs

• Population results from the 2001 Census for Census Day and mid year estimates for 2001 are planned for release in August 2002. The counts will have been augmented to take account of the findings of the Census Coverage Survey.
• Population estimates for each mid year 1992 to 2000 will be revised to produce a time series consistent with the new 2001 estimates in time for publication of the 2002 mid year estimates in April 2003.
• Results from the 2001 Census of Population will be published by March 2003. Detailed Census Area Statistics on a wide range of topics will be published through SCROL (Scottish Census Results Output Library).
• The methodology for producing small area population estimates will be reviewed taking account of emerging Census data and other administrative sources. Recommendations on the methodology and degree of detail to use for the estimates for 2002 and later years will be made by end 2002.
• The first set of population projections taking account of the 2001 Census will be 2002 based and will be available November 2003 (national) and March 2004 (sub-national).

Development of sources

• 2001 Census - Output from the 2001 Census will be relevant to many other themes including Labour Market, Social & Welfare, Education, Health & Care, Environment and Transport & Travel. Census results also play an important role in the distribution of Local Government Finance.
• Census data will be available for use in demographic analysis by the academic or other sectors and this will assist in improving the understanding of the policy implications of population change.
• Patient register data (Community Health Index) is the key component of experimental data on small area population estimates and for estimating migration within local authority areas. Fitness for purpose and potential to acquire a National Statistics label will be evaluated. This evaluation will focus on data quality issues. Further and continued use of this data will depend on decisions about the extent to which non-medical patient data may be used without infringing patient confidentiality - a matter being considered by the Scottish Executive.
• The methodology for estimating migration at council area level will be reviewed drawing on data from the Community Health Index and the 2001 Census and a new methodology - probably dropping the previous electoral register source - will be tested and, if adopted, will be fully documented for public release.
• Civil registration review - A review of civil registration in Scotland is under way. It is not envisaged that this will result in any major change to the statistics produced from this source. GROS will, however, pay close attention to developments in England and Wales and especially to related reviews of death certification practices.
• Administrative sources - As new administrative data sources become available they are evaluated in the context of the production of population statistics, and whether their introduction will improve reliability and quality. The aim is to ensure that the available administrative and survey data are used to the best effect, taking appropriate account of data confidentiality and data protection issues. More generally there is a need to resolve the tensions between wider use of administrative sources for statistics and the preservation of personal privacy. National Statistics is working towards the production of protocols within the NS Code of Practice to provide standards for such issues.

User/provider consultation

A SCOTSTAT Population and Migration Statistics Committee has been set up to pursue the interests of the theme with a range of users. Input will also be possible from any party registering an interest via the Web based user consultation framework. The Committee has been consulted about the proposed new outputs and is developing a future work programme. In addition to looking after the interests of the theme the Committee also serves as the Scottish Census Advisory Group.

Quality Improvements

• National Population Projections - The Government Actuary's Department will implement, where possible, the recommendations from the NS Quality Review of the methodology used in preparing mortality projections, in time for the 2002-based national population projections.

Reviews started in 2001-02

UK wide reviews of births and deaths, and international migration have been started during 2001-02. GROS will contribute to this and any other reviews starting in 2002-03. One of the issues identified by users is the need for more reliable estimates of international migration at country and local authority level. The UK wide NS quality review will investigate this and other user requirements, assess how the currently available statistics meet these needs, assess gaps and make recommendations.

The Home Office will continue to improve the quality and scope of the statistics on immigration control and asylum by utilising improved administrative sources of casework information. Improved information on the geographical location of asylum seekers is a specific aspiration.

Developments in geographic data

Most data are postcoded. Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics will draw on postcoded data and there will be a key role for the 2001 Census Output Areas in neighbourhood statistics. Developments in small area population estimates will play an important role as denominators for calculating per head rates in many neighbourhood statistics. Care will need to be taken in interpreting any such statistics in the light of the confidence that can be attached to small area estimates.

Developments in equality data

Gender disaggregation is commonplace in statistics for this theme. The 2001 Census will provide new data on ethnicity and religion. There have been detailed consultations about the ethnicity classification and tables to be produced from the 2001 Census in Scotland. It is important to note that the different size of ethnic minority populations in Scotland compared with England would give rise to issues of disclosure if the same detailed classifications were to be used across the UK. Consequently care needs to be taken in presenting ethnicity data by geographical area

2.6 Social and Welfare (Minister for Social Justice)

One of the key developments for the Statistical service of the Scottish Executive has been the development and delivery of increased amounts of statistical information to inform and monitor the work being carried out in the social and welfare theme. It is clear that the equality agenda, the social justice initiative and the area regeneration work have seen a significant increase in the availability of data, but it is also evident that more data and increased disaggregation are required.

Outputs

Summary of main outputs

• Social Focus publication - Compendium publication focusing on analyses of urban and rural Scotland.
• Benefits Data - We are discussing with Department of Work and Pensions (DWP), the provision of key benefits data for Social Inclusion Partnership (SIP) areas in Scotland. In addition to informing the development of regeneration strategies within SIPs, this information will complement the work on Neighbourhood Statistics by making information available at a lower level of geography.
• Scottish Income Dataset - A research project is being undertaken by Stirling University on behalf of the Scottish Executive to look into the creation of a Scottish Income dataset by combining data from a range of existing sources to enable income analysis at sub-Scotland level.
• Deprivation Index - As part of the work to produce a Deprivation Index for Scotland that allows for analysis at small geographic area and can be updated over time as more relevant data becomes available, an interim index (or indices) will be developed. This will help us to explore the needs of users and to develop methodological solutions as necessary. This will be part of the Neighbourhood Statistics work.
• Social Justice Technical Report 2002 - A technical report in support of the Social Justice Milestones Annual Report will be produced. The information will cover the 29 milestones and will seek to fill the data gaps that currently exist.

Geographic data

The development of better information on rural Scotland is a major priority for the Social Justice work over 2002-3. The statistical service will work to increase the availability of data split by urban and rural classifications. This will include improving the availability of timeseries data.

Equality data

The equality strategy of the Scottish Executive is a fundamental policy driver of the work of the statistical service. The commitment to provide data disaggregated by age, gender, disability and ethnicity has identified the need for increased availability of data and has also drawn out the current problems that exist with both the collection and analysis of this information. The need to consider alternative sources of information and to rationalise the collection and use across the various sources is key to having a better focusing of data collection. It will be important to better combine research work with statistical collection and dissemination and to work with other Government departments in order to identify and fill data gaps. This will help to avoid duplication of collection, which can lead to respondent fatigue and reduced response rates.

User/Provider consultation

A SCOTSTAT Committee focusing on the social and welfare theme will be in place. This Committee will be one of the main drivers of analytical work. The remit of the Committee will cover Income estimation, Scottish Household Survey, Equality Issues, Rural Issues, Social Justice and how dissemination can be developed in these areas. The Committee will have a representative on the main SCOTSTAT board and will work closely with cross-cutting areas such as Neighbourhood Statistics. The Committee will also consider the need for working groups to be formed to take forward specific issues.

Quality improvements

The need for better and more data in this theme area is significant. In many areas the work is relatively new and whilst large strides have been made - Social Justice milestones and social focus publications - the demand is still considerable. Key areas that need development are ethnicity classifications, income estimation, and support of the Social Inclusion Partnership and Better Neighbourhood Services Fund initiatives.

Preliminary work has been carried out to identify the differences between SHS income data and that from the Households Below Average Income dataset. Discussions are underway with the Scottish Household Survey (SHS) technical group on how income data should be collected by the SHS and how it could be appropriately used. Wider consideration of the role that SHS can take in informing the SIPS, Better Neighbourhood Services Fund and Milestones work will also take place.

The disaggregation of data along equality dimensions needs significant work. There is a need to resolve the current problems that have been identified with the ethnicity classifications in order to deliver classifications that are accepted by users and providers of data and to consider how to take forward the problems of definition around disability classification. This will be taken forward with policy and research colleagues. The introduction the of Race Relations Amendment Act will lead to a greater demand for data on race.

« Previous | Contents | Next »