The Scottish Government

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2002-3 Statistical Plan

Chapter 1

1. Key issues

1.1 Analytical Services development

The aim of the Statistical Service in the Scottish Executive is to provide relevant and reliable statistical information, analysis and advice that meet the needs of government, business and the people of Scotland.

The emphasis is on the relevance and reliability of statistics and it is important to note that we are not just providing statistics for central government purposes. Increasingly as we develop more local statistics we will help to meet the needs of local authorities and a wide range of other bodies. We also recognise that we have a prime task in supplying the statistics which allow Parliament and the public to judge the record of the government and engage in debate on government policy.

The plan contains detailed programmes for the development of statistics in each subject area.

Each chapter sets out how we are planning to meet some of our key objectives:

• developing new statistics and new analysis to meet user needs inside and outside of government
• where necessary and practical improving timescales
• developing new and improved statistics in key cross cutting policy areas including the economy, social justice, area regeneration, equality and rural issues
• contributing more directly to policy processes inside and where possible outside government. These include community planning, performance information, measurement of government targets, better policy making and modernising government objectives.
• improving and assuring quality

In addition we have a number of cross cutting programmes, and these are described in this introductory chapter. They reflect our other key objectives:

• Developing more data for small areas through the Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics project
• Improving dissemination of information, through providing better disaggregation of data and also by delivering improved access to and presentation of data and analysis, through better use of the Web, improved publications and improved systems for holding and accessing background data
• Working in a more co-ordinated way with other analytical services in the Executive and beyond
• Maintaining comparability of statistics across the UK and working with the rest of the Government Statistical Service to develop joint approaches/solutions where appropriate
• Improving the involvement of users and providers
• Making full use of all sources including administrative sources
• Minimising the burden on data providers
• Ensuring value for money in our activities
• Maintaining and promoting integrity through implementation of the National Statistics Code of Practice and related protocols
• Developing statistical methods and the use of integrated statistical methods and classifications

We also include a section on the 2001 Census.

1.2 Developing more data for small areas through the Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics project

Our plans for the development of Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (SNS) were described in Chapter 2 of the Statistical Plan 2001-02. Over the period 2001 to 2004, the Scottish Executive has agreed to provide funding of 7 million to support the transformation of the production, dissemination and use of data at the local level. Comparable developments are taking place elsewhere in the UK.

The major challenges for SNS are:

• to exploit the range of information held in the administrative systems of the various public sector bodies in Scotland
• to develop methods to produce small area estimates from higher level data, such as that available from surveys
• to ensure that the confidentiality of individuals is protected, while making results available for small geographic areas.

SNS's main contribution will be to enhance our understanding of differences between geographic areas. This will enable the Executive and a wide range of other organisations, which are responsible for service delivery, to target and monitor area based interventions more effectively. However, it will also illuminate the circumstances of specific groups, particularly those suffering social disadvantage, wherever they live. The range of information which SNS will deliver is particularly relevant to the aims of modernising government, which highlights the need for policy making to be more coherent and strategic and to be more firmly based on analytical evidence, and to supporting social justice policies.

Progress on SNS in 2001-02 was slower than we had planned, due to difficulties in recruiting the number of people necessary to start up this major new project. Data development, reported in the theme chapters, is a key priority for 2002-03.

In 2001, we established 2 groups to oversee the SNS Project: the SNS Development Group, involving the Scottish Executive and a wide range of partners, and an internal Scottish Executive project management board (PMB). These will steer the overall balance of the project, while the development of data for specific domains will be taken forward through the SCOTSTAT Committee structure. We will review the role and working methods of the SNS Development Group (including the frequency with which it meets) and its interactions with SCOTSTAT in late Summer 2002, to ensure that the most effective arrangements are developed.

The Executive will continue to contribute to the UK-wide development of Neighbourhood Statistics by participating in regular meetings of the 4 administrations and in UK level groups, such as the Better Information for Small Areas Advisory Group.

In 2001-02, the SNS Development Group established 2 Working Groups, on Information and Communications Technology (ICT) and Deprivation. In 2002-03, the ICT Group will develop systems for the delivery and exploitation of SNS, in line with the Vision statement which it prepared in 2001. This will include the use of geographic information systems (GIS) for the selection of areas and the visualisation of information about them. The ICT Group will build on work already undertaken, for example, in the Scottish Census Results Output Library (SCROL) Project and the Webmapping pilot developed by Communities Scotland.

The Deprivation Group will commission a programme of work to develop a longterm strategy for a Scottish index or indices of deprivation which can be regularly updated by 2003, and to produce a short term update of the 1998 Scottish index, in 2002.

The Development Group and the PMB will consider whether there is a need for further working groups, for example, to look at the support users will need to exploit the information effectively.

We will review the pilot work on locality definitions, commissioned in 2001-02 to assess how an alternative geographic unit of analysis to wards or postcode sectors might be defined, in Spring 2002. If the pilot work is successful, we will extend it to create units covering all of Scotland by mid 2002. We expect this second phase will include community consultation on the concept of 'locality' and the use of information by community groups.

We will be undertaking a range of activities to raise awareness of the potential use of Neighbourhood Statistics throughout 2002-03.

1.3 Dissemination

One of the key priorities for the Statistical service is to make widely available high quality information. This information should be disaggregated, timely and easily accessible and should meet the needs of the many different users of Government Statistics. It must also be collected in such a way that response levels are maximised and bias or under-representation minimised. The needs of users and technological developments are continually changing and therefore it is vital that the processes of assessing user needs and the updating of our delivery mechanisms are regularly reviewed.

The Statistical service is committed over the following year to working to increase disaggregation of data by age, gender, ethnicity and disability. The improved availability of data across the Equalities agenda will greatly assist the development of policies and the measurement of progress. In addition there are plans to make significant progress in disaggregating data by urban and rural dimensions. This work will be on-going and will require the improved collection of data as well as addressing methodological and classification problems.

Work will be taken forward across the range of statistical outputs, although there will be specific focus on the Social Justice agenda. This will depend in certain topic areas on the development of information at the United Kingdom level and the Scottish Executive is committed to working together with colleagues in UK departments to deliver on these objectives. As noted earlier in this chapter a key project over the next couple of years will be the increased data development and dissemination that will result from the Neighbourhood Statistics work.

The Statistical service is committed to improved dissemination of its data via the Internet. The current web site is perceived to be confusing and it is difficult for occasional users to access the information for which they are looking. Over the next year, work will be taken forward to re-organise the layout and to produce a web site that is more effective. It is also important that users of statistical information are able to access related information such as policy objectives, research projects and economic analysis.

Dissemination of information is a key part of the work in each of the topic themes in this publication. More specific information on the plans for the next year is available in the following chapters.

1.4 Working in a more co-ordinated way with other analytical services in the Executive and beyond

To many the distinction between the work of government statisticians, researchers and economists will not always be clear. In the last year the central elements of these services in the Scottish Executive have been brought together as an Analytical Services Group. Many departments had already combined statistics and economics, and others have followed suit, in some cases including research and aspects of information systems management.

The objectives of the Analytical Services Group are to bring a more integrated and a more effective approach to the provision of analytical work in the Executive through the greater co-ordination of the work of the Chief Economic Adviser, the Chief Statistician and the Chief Research Officer.

In more detail this includes:

• Enhancing the co-ordination of analytical work across the Executive
• Working with the key areas of work in the Executive to enhance the relevance, timeliness, quality and application of analytical work to Executive policy
• Developing the Executive's overall analytical services priorities
• Enhancing the contribution of the analytical service to corporate work such as Service Delivery and Programme for Government monitoring
• Supporting the restructuring of analytical work in key work areas
• Promoting dissemination and external dialogue

None of this is intended to undermine the professional standards or expertise of each of the three disciplines, and indeed it is intended to reinforce them. The practical implications and programmes resulting from these objectives are still in the course of development.

1.5 Maintaining comparability of statistics across the UK and working with the rest of the Government Statistical Service to develop joint approaches/solutions where appropriate.

The Scottish Executive is and will remain fully engaged in National Statistics structures. These include:

The National Statistics Planning Board which includes all three devolved administrations and the larger UK departments. It co-ordinates the National Statistics planning and reporting processes across all Themes and areas

Theme Working Groups whose responsibilities include co-ordinating planning of statistical developments, quality reviews and methodology/classification issues across each Theme.

National Statistics Economic and Social Committees. They are responsible for ensuring that a range of sources and infrastructure are developed which best meet output requirements of users, across these broad areas of activity. One of the issues the Scottish Executive is pursuing through the Economic Committee is the production of Scottish statistics by UK departments to a standard required to meet our needs.

A range of other more specialised working groups including, neighbourhood statistics, geography, and statistics for (UK) regional policy.

Statisticians in the Scottish Executive also work with others in the Government Statistical Service on personnel and training and development.

The Statistics Concordat covers relations between administrations. A review of the Concordat is underway and will be completed during 2002-03.

1.6 User/Provider consultation through SCOTSTAT

The development of an effective consultation process is an essential component in the production of relevant, accurate, comprehensive and timely official statistics for Scotland. It will enable the Scottish Executive to monitor the main uses to which data and publications are put, will ensure that the statistics produced meet users needs, and that appropriate data collection methodologies are being employed.

The Scottish Executive has engaged in discussions both internally and externally through a National Statistics event held in August 2000, and finally through an extensive consultation process to develop this framework from a range of different options. It has been developed as a general framework rather than a detailed set of prescriptive mechanisms. Different subject areas will take forward the relevant developments in a way that suits their area, building on existing liaison groups where appropriate.

The development of an effective consultation process clearly has benefits for the SE, GROS and other relevant agencies. It also has real benefits for the users and providers. Some of the key benefits, which have been identified, are as follows:

• Gaps in current scope of consultation are filled
• Users/providers have input into prioritisation of work on existing and new data sources
• Clear links to overarching group ensuring the subject groups are not working in isolation
• Wider consultation is possible
• Provides easier access to other colleagues, within and out with government
• More openness (availability, access to methods, collection methodologies)
• Greater scope for electronic consultation
• Involvement of senior management in policy/research

The proposed framework will cover all National Statistics outputs and outputs under consideration for inclusion in the scope of National Statistics. It will also be possible to bring other non-National Statistics within the scope of the consultation framework.

There is a three-tier structure. The first tier will be the SCOTSTAT Board (an overarching group with a strategic remit) which met for the first time in January 2002. Below that, the second tier will comprise a series of 10 NS Theme-based SCOTSTAT Committees. These Committees, as well as the Board, will have the ability to set up and oversee a third tier of working groups (and sub-groups as required) which will usually be time-limited and make maximum use of electronic communication.

An Internet web-site for the range of consultation groups, along with an electronic register containing e-mail addresses, names and areas of interest for all users and providers has now been launched an is available at http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/scotstats.asp

For the consultation process to succeed, it is critical that there is high-level policy involvement (particularly in the Board), and that there is a balance between the needs of users and providers. The consultation framework for Scotland will not exist in a vacuum. It will be important for links to be developed and maintained with other relevant groups and bodies.

1.7 Making full use of all sources including administrative sources

As noted, one of the key elements of Neighbourhood Statistics is the better exploitation of administrative sources. A number of very necessary pieces of work are being developed on an UK basis as part of Neighbourhood Statistics. These include the implications of data protection and confidentiality requirements and the development of disclosure control methodologies.

We will contribute and draw from this work, adapting it as appropriate to Scottish circumstances. Each statistical theme will implement the practical issues related to each data set, which will include data processing and ICT system, as part of the Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics data development process.

Similarly any specific data protection, confidentiality and disclosure issues will be dealt within themes.

In addition as noted in 1.12, GROS will carry out a review of the 2001 Census and this will contribute to further consideration of the longer term options for development of administrative data sources.

1.8 Minimising the burden on data providers

The Scottish Executive collects information from a wide range of people, organisations and businesses, and it is important that the burden placed on these groups is mini-mised. The dangers of an increasing burden are falling response rates and a reduction in the quality of information being provided. Therefore it is in the best interests of data suppliers, data collectors and data users that information is collected in the most efficient and effective manner and that where possible information - after considering confidentiality and disclosure issues - is 'collected once and used many times'.

The Statistical service has recently introduced an office-wide set of guidelines. These guidelines set out new methods of monitoring the collection of information about surveys and data collections carried out by statisticians, economists, researchers and policy colleagues across the Scottish Executive. The purposes are to identify any overlap, improve the co-ordination of the collection of data and to improve the quality of surveys carried out by the Scottish Executive.

The new guidelines are called 'Survey Monitoring and Advice' and are a development of the previous 'Survey Control' procedures. In the past, survey control was considered to be a rather bureaucratic process with little value added to the survey owner. The new guidelines have been widely agreed across the office and will go a long way to ensuring that best practice is implemented and that the needs of users and providers of data are considered together.

1.9 Ensuring value for money in our activities.

Providing value for money is an important objective within National Statistics. This plan provides information on the costs associated with implementing this plan. Actual costs are reported on in the annual stewardship report. However the costs of further extensive internal accounting processes are high and the results are likely to be of limited value, and often difficult to assign to specific outputs. So whilst we would envisage some development in cost information, this will be limited to improving the accuracy of broad costs figures and identifying large discrete items where appropriate.

Measurement of value has not yet commenced. It is expected that some work will be carried out on this at UK level. It will be important to avoid time consuming and potentially spurious assignment of values to particular outputs and it will be especially important to avoid placing a burden on users and providers of statistics.

1.10 Maintaining and promoting integrity through implementation of the National Statistics Code of Practice and related protocols.

The National Statistics Code of Practice is currently out for consultation along with the first of a number of more detailed protocols. The Scottish Executive will consider its position once the consultation is complete, but the Code will require to be agreed on an UK wide basis.

We may adopt different versions of the more detailed protocols so as to reflect Scottish circumstances more fully.

Arrangements to implement the Code and Protocols are being developed and will be in place when the Code is finally agreed. At present this is expected to be in June 2002. The Executive's Annual Report on Statistics will report on compliance with the Code.

Agreement was reached in 2001 that the independent Statistics Commission would function in relation to the Scottish Executive in a similar way as it does to the UK Government. As yet the engagement of the Commission in Scottish Executive matters has been very limited, but it may be expected to develop during 2002-03.

1.11 Developing statistical methods and the use of integrated statistical methods and classifications

The Statistical service will work to review and improve where appropriate its statistical methods and processes across the whole range of statistical products. The statistical service is making a significant contribution to the work being taken forward at an UK level to develop more comprehensive, more timely and better sub national economic estimates. The need to develop more appropriate classifications, particularly in the equality field will mean that harmonisation across the UK will need to be considered alongside specific needs of Scottish users and providers of data.

As members of the Government Statistical Service, the statisticians in the SE and GROS liaise closely with colleagues across the UK, to help deliver harmonised approaches where appropriate and to share best practice.

1.12 2001 Census

Scotland's Census of Population and Housing on 29 April 2001 was the key statistical event of the past year. Central and local government, health authorities, businesses and community groups all benefit from the availability of Census information. Accurate and reliable information on the number and characteristics of people in each local area, comparable for all parts of the country, helps those who have to deliver services for particular groups of people to do so effectively. Academic and other users will use Census results for research, which also contributes to the formulation and monitoring of policy.

Output from the 2001 Census will be relevant not just to Population and Migration issues, but to many themes including Labour Market, Social and Welfare, Education, Health and Care, Environment, and Transport and Travel.

The first results from the Census will be population counts by age, gender and area available in August 2002. Detailed area statistics covering the range of topics covered in the Census will be available by March 2003 in a number of different products. Confidentiality measures are used to protect all products from revealing data. The most detailed products are not produced for the smaller areas for confidentiality reasons. A hierarchy of areas is used, the main ones being:

• Scotland
• Council Areas
• Postcode Sectors (within councils areas)/Wards
• Output Areas (groups of postcodes covering 50 households on average)

Simple head counts of the number of households and number of male and female residents will be produced for postcode units. For most products, however, there is a minimum number of households and residents required.

The Registrar General's report to the Scottish Parliament - scheduled for before March 2003 - will be a selection of tables covering Key Statistics, Census Area Statistics (CAS) and Standard Tables at Scotland and council area level. Much of this material will also be disseminated electronically, at no cost through the Scottish Census Results Output Library (SCROL). The Key Statistics, CAS and Standard Tables containing new information about socio-economic variability by areas will be available by March 2003. It is envisaged that these products will be available for inclusion along with other small area data in Neighbourhood Statistics.

Each of the SCOTSTAT Committees has been invited to specify whether any Scotland level tables with more detailed classifications would aid understanding of issues in its subject area and if so to commission them.

The Registrar General will undertake a full review and evaluation of the 2001 Census in Scotland. The review will focus on meeting the requirements of users, acceptability of the data collection operations, quality of Census results and value for money. Findings of the review will be published in 2003.

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