The Scottish Government

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CHAPTER THREE METHOD S

Measuring biodiversity conservation and progress>

3.1 Because Scotland contains more than 90,000 different species, it would be impossible to measure trends in the populations of all of these consistently and regularly. In practice, it is possible to measure Scotland's effect on biodiversity by using a combination of surrogate measures. The foremost of these is to monitor the habitats and species on the UKBAPs, which are nationally agreed as being those most threatened.. Also, however, it is also useful to monitor Scotland's progress in creating the right conditions for biodiversity conservation to occur.

3.2 The SBG's success can be measured against its effectiveness in meeting its international obligations (in the UK context) as well as meeting its own aims and objectives. However in some areas where it is difficult to measure (at least in the short term) whether or not final objectives are being met, there is a need to identify 'means objectives': short term objectives which are the means by which the final objectives can be achieved.

Table 4: How to measure Scotland's biodiversity achievement

3.3 This review therefore assessed success using two types of measures.

• Measures against the UKBAP using hard data, e.g. published and unpublished data on the number of Action Plans made, and the number of species and habitats lost, declining, stabilised and recovered according to the Action Plan monitoring process as updated by the SBG.
• Measures identifying how closely means objectives (means of achieving objectives) have been met. This involves identifying means objectives, developing questions, asking specialists their opinions, and referring to the literature and hard evidence. For example, little data are available on whether Scotland is doing sufficient to conserve genetic biodiversity. It was therefore necessary to consult with specialists (listed in the Acknowledgements) to ascertain whether or not the situation is improving.

3.4 LBAPs, a vital part of the process, were judged under the second set of measures, since they are seen as an integral part of the process in meeting overall objectives, rather than as a measurable target in themselves.

Strategy for measuring success in meeting the UKBAP: HAPs and SAPs

3.5 The UKBAP aims to protect and enhance the UK's biodiversity using detailed and costed Actions Plans for key habitats and species. The habitats and species are selected on the basis of their international and national importance, their rarity and the level of threat to which they are exposed. In 1995 the UK Biodiversity Steering Group published 14 Habitat Action Plans (HAPs) and 61 Species Action Plans (SAPs). From 1998 to 1999 a further 31 HAPs and 275 SAPs were published.

3.6 The success in meeting the requirements of the UKBAP can be assessed by examining the execution and outcome of the component HAPs and SAPs. Positive changes in the biological status of target habitats and species represent the strongest and most significant indicators of success. Although improvements in biological status can already be detected in a few cases, most of the Action Plans have been in operation for too little time for positive changes to be expected. Many species have limited reproductive rates, and rates of habitat expansion under positive management regimes are limited by the rates of growth of the component species. In many cases, a lack of monitoring and survey data makes it hard to distinguish small changes in populations over the short period of a few years. These difficulties mean that at this early stage in the operation of the UKBAP, it is more effective to quantify success by examining the progress in establishing the organisational arrangements to develop and manage the delivery of Action Plans.

3.7 Each Action Plan has a Lead Partner which takes overall responsibility for the plan. Typically Lead Partners are government agencies, research institutes or non-governmental conservation organisations. The Lead Partner establishes a Steering Group, comprising representatives of other interested organisations with relevant expertise and knowledge of the Action Plan habitat or species. The Steering Group develops a Work Programme which consists of a number of Actions: these are practical activities and measures designed to deliver the improvements in biological status which are the ultimate aim of the plan. During 1999 to 2000, the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) surveyed Lead Partners to quantify the progress of published Action Plans over the whole of the UK. Information on Steering Groups, Work Programmes, Actions and changes in biological status were reported and stored in a database, to provide a quantitative snapshot of the Action Plan process. This information was analysed and reported for the whole UK in the DETR's Millennium Biodiversity Report.

3.8 In 2000, The Scottish Executive, on behalf of the SBG, commissioned its own analysis of the JNCC database of Lead Partner reports on all the habitats and species which are present, or known to have occurred, in Scotland. This was carried out by Central Environmental Surveys (CES). Of the 436 Action Plans published for the UK, 225 cover habitats and species which are present, or known to have occurred, in Scotland. These have been classified into different categories of importance to Scotland based on the percentage of the total UK area (habitats) or population (species) occurring in Scotland (see Tables 1 and 2).

3.9 The CES report provides the main source used to assess the Action Plan process in Scotland, although it only provides a snapshot of the situation in September 1999, the deadline set for Lead Partners to submit their reports to JNCC. Some Action Plans had not even been published by that time, and for most of the Action Plans published in 1995 the implementation process had only just begun. As a result the Lead Partners responsible for 49 Action Plans out of the 225 relevant to Scotland were unable to submit reports. Those Lead Partners that did report were often unable to provide complete information. The CES report has therefore been updated with further information gained by the SBG through recent enquiries to Lead Partners about some of the habitats and species that are key for Scotland.

3.10 This report therefore offers a basic indication of success in meeting the UK BAP targets by using the data to record biological status in terms of '% recovered'; 'signs of recovery'; 'evidence of decline'; and 'lost within this five year period'. However, since the Biodiversity Process is very young, it was recognised that there would be very little reliable data available, and that it would therefore also be necessary to measure means objectives.

Strategy to measure success in meeting means objectives

3.11 Means objectives against which to judge success of the Biodiversity Process in Scotland were developed by us into a list known as the "Scottish Biodiversity Targets 2001" for this report. The list of Targets was debated and agreed by the panel, with the main aims that it should be as broad and inclusive as possible, encompassing the full scope of the CBD as well as Plans, actions, and on the ground results.

3.12 This report's 'Scottish Biodiversity Targets 2001' were constructed by combining and prioritising issues from:

• The aims of the Convention on Biological Diversity (paragraph 2.2)
• The means objectives identified by the UK Millennium Report (Appendix Two)
• The SBG's original remit (paragraph 2.20)
• SBG's ten-point programme, as agreed by Scottish Ministers (Table 3)

3.13 The 20 Scottish Biodiversity Targets, listed in the left side of the table below, are the Targets against which this report assesses Scotland's biodiversity work 1996-2001.

Table 5: Scottish Biodiversity Targets and Questions

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